Deterministic Vs. Probabilistic Attribution: What’s the Difference?

Deterministic attribution is the gold standard in advertising measurement. It’s a precise, data-driven method that directly connects specific campaign touchpoints to measurable conversions with 100% certainty. This unparalleled accuracy is made possible by advanced technologies available on digital channels, enabling advertisers to track consumers seamlessly through their conversion journey.

Traditional advertising, like linear TV, falls short in this regard—it simply cannot measure consumer conversions. Streaming channels, such as Connected TV (CTV) and streaming audio, take advantage of their internet-connected capabilities to deterministically attribute conversions to specific ad exposures.

However, achieving this level of precision doesn’t happen automatically. Unlike search and social platforms that rely on direct click-through links, streaming mediums require cross-channel attribution to connect the dots. Achieving this accuracy demands more than just technology—it calls for a blend of advanced tools, strategy, and rigorous filtration processes to ensure the data is accurate and reliable.

On the flip side, probabilistic attribution offers only an educated guess. This is the method commonly used by traditional channels, like traditional TV, where outcomes are estimated based on patterns rather than directly linked to data. For example, it might suggest that an uptick in dealership walk-ins correlates with a recent advertising campaign, but it can’t definitively prove that connection. It’s probable.

Marketers relying on probabilistic attribution often find themselves in the dark about underperforming channels or audiences. And when it comes to streaming advertising—a medium that inherently lacks clickable links— cross-channel measurement can easily slip into the realm of probability rather than certainty if the data isn’t meticulously collected and thoroughly scrubbed.

At EMG, we don’t support guesswork. We deliver deterministic attribution for automotive streaming campaigns, offering clear and reliable insights into how your ads drive tangible results—like vehicle sales, dealership walk-ins, and online leads.

Here’s how we do it:

1. Tracking Every Touchpoint
   From the first ad impression to the final customer action, EMG tracks every step of the user journey. We can deterministically report that an ad exposure resulted in a dealership walk-in “X” days later.
2. Leveraging Advanced Technologies
   Our process combines cutting-edge tools, including identity resolution graphs, location data systems, and online pixel tracking, to follow users across channels—from their living rooms to your dealership lot or website.
3. Filtering Out the Noise
   EMG’s “truth test” ensures only valid visits are counted. We apply filters for dwell time, excluding drive-bys, pick-ups, and random traffic. Recency checks remove visits from dealership staff, delivery drivers, and service workers—people who clearly aren’t car buyers.
4. Delivering Verified Results
   We corroborate our data over a dozen times to ensure the outcomes we report align with your dealership’s actual sales. The result? Accurate, actionable insights you can trust.

With EMG’s deterministic attribution, the truth is unwavering. The results aren’t just numbers—they’re felt directly on your showroom floor. We use this proprietary data to refine and optimize your campaigns, helping dealerships boost market share by 20% in just 90 days.

Stop guessing and start growing. Stream with EMG today.